Two Central Banks Burned
Extraordinary and experimental action from the BOJ and now the ECB has backfired in the market. The euro surged after Draghi hinted no more easing is in the planned pipeline. Looking abroad, the PBOC...
View ArticleChina Fears Flare, AUD Longs Rise
China combined Jan and Feb data in an effort to smooth over Lunar New Year skews but it only helped to highlight the economic slowdown. Industrial production rose 5.4% y/y compared to 5.6% expected....
View ArticleThe Bank of Jawbone?
The Bank of Japan attempted to shock markets with negative rates in January but it backfired and the yen jumped. In a sign that markets are unafraid of action at the BOJ decision today, the yen was the...
View ArticleDollar Undone as Fed Fears Market
The Federal Reserve pointed to international concerns as it lowered inflation forecasts and avoided hawkish rhetoric. The US dollar was beaten up on after the decision and the commodity currencies were...
View ArticleWhat Happened at the G20?
The Fed squandered much of its hawkish rhetoric Wednesday and market participants continue to ask 'why?' (as they sell the US dollar). If you look at the recent turns in markets many of them can be...
View ArticleChina's Debt Problem
China is in focus early this week after the central bank leader warned about rising debt levels. The yen was the top performer last week while the US dollar lagged. Weekly CFTC positioning data showed...
View ArticleWhat to Make of the Dollar Creep
China is in focus early this week after the central bank leader warned about rising debt levels. The yen was the top performer last week while the US dollar lagged. Weekly CFTC positioning data showed...
View ArticleCommodity Bounce Fades, USD March Continues
The power of oversupply was in focus once again as US weekly inventory data showed nearly 10 million barrels of crude going into inventories. Oil fell 4% and the Canadian dollar lagged as the broad US...
View ArticleDollar Gains Dulled, Japan CPI Due
A weak durable goods report and position squaring ahead of the long weekend hurt the US dollar Thursday. The pound was the top performer and the yen lagged. Japanese CPI is due later and Australia is...
View ArticleThe Muddle Trade
The week ahead may start slowly but it will build up with a Yellen speech on Tuesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday, promising to add a dose of volatility. The larger theme that may be unfolding in...
View ArticleDollar Trade Thinned Ahead of Yellen
Weak readings on US personal spending and inflation underscored the two of the main Fed worries ahead of a Tuesday appearance from Yellen. The dollar was beaten up after the data, especially against...
View ArticleThe Best of a Bad Bunch
No one wants a strong currency. The dollar bulls tried to bid up the currency ahead of Yellen but she punished bets on the US dollar for the second time in three weeks. We break down the efforts...
View ArticleWhat's Next for The Dollar
The post-Yellen US dollar selling stalled late Wednesday. We look at what's coming next. The New Zealand dollar was the top performer for the second day while USD and GBP lagged. Australian job...
View ArticleUSD Recovers Ahead of NFP, Tankan Next
The US dollar was battered in European trading but finally found some support ahead of non-farm payrolls. The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged. The critical Q1 Tankan survey is...
View ArticleJapan Readies the Pumps, Leaks Galore
It's not a later April Fool's joke, but the Japanese government is preparing another round of stimulus, according to a weekend report. Early-week trading is light as the market digests two major leaks....
View ArticleYen: Conventional vs Unusual
As the yen resumes its rally, many FX experts appear bemused by the yen's insistence to rally despite reported heavy foreign-bound investing by Japanese institutional players, persistent retreat in the...
View ArticleOn the Equities JPY Divergence
Tumbling yen crosses (soaring yen), falling US yields and rising US stocks -- The 12-month chart below illustrates this is not the way things are supposed to go. All 3 markets (USDJPY, US 10 year and...
View ArticleJapan Jawbone Put to the Test
Japan continued to touch on the intervention code on the weekend but yen strength late on Friday and growing yen speculative longs show a market without fear. Moves at the market open have been...
View ArticleBoC Bottleneck
USD/CAD closed at the lowest level since October and is threatening a 9 month low ahead of a BOC decision that will have a bigger impact than it seems. On Monday, the pound was the top performer while...
View ArticleOil and CAD Breakout
Signs of an oil output freeze pushed oil and the Canadian dollar to multi-month highs on Tuesday. The Australian dollar was the top performer while the yen lagged. Japanese PPI is due up next. In the...
View ArticleUSD Bulls Awake, Aussie Jobs next
The US dollar was hit with another wave of weak news and data on Wednesday and yet it was the top performing currency. The Swiss franc and euro were laggards and Canadian dollar reversed after the BOC....
View ArticleFed Flustered, China in the Crosshairs
The US dollar was hit with another wave of weak news and data on Wednesday and yet it was the top performing currency. The Swiss franc and euro were laggards and Canadian dollar reversed after the BOC....
View ArticleNo Deal in Doha
Hopes for an oil production freeze agreement in Doha ended in tatters Sunday with leaders walking away empty handed. The breakdown sets up a dramatic start to the week and USD/CAD is already trading up...
View ArticleSaudi Squeeze, RBA Minutes Next
A strike in Kuwait delayed the reckoning in oil and other markets on Monday. The pound was the top performer while the US dollar lagged. The Australian dollar touched a 9-month high ahead of the RBA...
View ArticleDollar Extends Slide, Oil Strike Ends
A second day of US dollar selling and commodity strength will face a test after the oil strike in Kuwait came to an end. The kiwi was the top performer Tuesday while the yen lagged as US stocks touched...
View ArticleDollar Rebounds, ECB Next
The US dollar regained a footing on Wednesday and touched a two-week high versus the yen. The Canadian dollar led the way while Swiss franc lagged. With little on the calendar in Asia-Pacific trading,...
View ArticleDollar Rebounds, ECB NextCentral Bank Support To Fade
Mario Draghi asked for patience in a signal that the latest round of easing might be done. Markets continued the trend of punishing volatility as the euro jumped and then dropped. Japanese...
View ArticleAnti-Brexit Trade Boosts GBP
Brexit betting odds are falling and Obama added to the chorus of politicians warning of disaster on the weekend. Liquidity is still thin but cable is up strongly to start the week. Weekly CFTC data...
View ArticleWhy the BOJ could Wait
A hint on Bank of Japan thinking added more intrigue to this week's full slate of central bank decisions. Markets were contained on the day as the yen rebounded and was the top performer; a slide in...
View ArticleDurables Add Doubt, Aussie CPI Next
Another soft US durable goods orders report may leave the Fed with second thoughts about a hawkish bias. The pound was the top performer while the dollar was generally softer and the Japanese yen...
View ArticleFed and RBNZ Dovish, BOJ Next
The dominant dovish theme in global central banks reasserted itself once again after the Fed steered completely clear of anything like a hawkish bias. The New Zealand dollar higher in early...
View ArticleThe Lessons From the Carnage
The BOJ and RBNZ yesterday were a shining example of just how much dovishness the market demands from central bankers. The yen rocketed higher after the BOJ and the kiwi was the next best performer...
View ArticleChina PMI Misses, AUD Longs in Peril
The yen ripped right to the finish line on Friday and is slightly higher to begin the week. China's manufacturing PMI was released on the weekend and edged lower. Holidays could complicate trading to...
View ArticleNo AUD Fear Ahead of RBA
The Australian dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged on Monday. The AUD/USD gain comes despite the looming, tough-to-call RBA decision. We look at what's expected and examine the...
View ArticleReversal Tuesday, NZD Rises on Jobs
The US dollar hit cycle lows and then stormed back on Tuesday, marking impressive reversal signals on the daily charts. The commodity currencies lagged badly following the RBA rate cut. In early...
View ArticleUSD Bubbles, CAD Burned
The US dollar once again showed strength and resilience on Wednesday but the bit story was a sharp drop in CAD on weak trade data and a wicked wildfire in the heart of the oilsands. Australian retail...
View ArticleDollar Solid Ahead of NFP
A third day of declines in EUR/USD sets the stage for Friday's non-farm payrolls report. The Australian dollar was the top performer while the Swiss franc lagged. The Australian construction PMI and...
View ArticleStocks, JPY, Yields Correlation Restored
Not much has changed in USD trading since our March post. Today's neutral-to-negative US jobs report will not do the job to sway the Fed into raising rates in June. April payrolls rose by 160K (vs exp...
View ArticleDollar Shrugs Off Jobs Data
Non-farm payrolls sent a powerful signal about US dollar demand. Oil jumped in early trading but FX moves have been minimal. Weekend data continues to show softening Chinese trade. Click To Enlarge...
View ArticleThe Quiet Challenge for Central Banks
The Bank of England joined a trend of central banks cutting down on the number of meetings. We look at what it signals about the future role of monetary policy. In Monday trading, the US dollar...
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