Why China is Snookered for the Moment
A round of risk aversion that started in China went global in a dismal start to the trading year. The yen led the way and commodity currencies lagged in a classic flight to safety. BoJ governor Kuroda...
View ArticleChina Renews Stock Selling Ban
Chinese authorities arrived to shore up stocks Tuesday after an early slide, we look at their options. The yen was the top performer while the euro lagged. Chinese economic data is due later. A ban on...
View ArticleWhat's the Worry?
We look at the myriad of reasons that sentiment has deteriorated and whether it's justified. Oil fell 6% on Wednesday and commodity currencies were beaten up again while the yen led the way. Australian...
View ArticleIt's China, and more
What's hurting markets now is the lack of a firm guiding hand in China but it's not the only thing weighing on sentiment. The euro and Swiss franc led the way while Aussie lagged Thursday as the...
View ArticleCable Below 1.44, China Trade Looms
The pound fell to a five year low after weak industrial production added to the downtrend. The yen was the top performer while the commodity currencies lagged wit GBP. The razor-sharp focus on China...
View ArticleThe Great Commodity Divide
The global economy has been divided along emerging and developed market lines for the past 15 years. Now there is a line and offers a clearer way to view what's underway in 2016. There are currently 5...
View ArticleOil Fears Mount, JPY Longs Increase
Sanctions on Iran were lifted in what will bring fresh oil to the market while China took fresh steps to chase out yuan shorts. In early trading, USD/CAD is significantly higher in early trading as it...
View ArticleThe Blame Game, China GDP next
If you don't know what's happening – blame China. If that doesn't work, blame the Fed. The overwhelming majority of market watchers are pointing the finger at one of those two, but what if they're...
View ArticleThree BoC Scenarios
USD/CAD rallied late to finish higher once again in a remarkable streak of 13 consecutive daily gains for the pair. That sets the stage for Wednesday's razor thin Bank of Canada decision. We take a...
View ArticleCentral Bankers vs Markets
Central bankers continue to sound an 'all clear' signal while markets continue to sound the alarm in a divergence that can't last. The yen climbed once again Wednesday and the S&P 500 touched the...
View ArticleConflicting Signals on the Rebound
Draghi continues to be the world's most unpredictable central banker as he surprised by sending strong signals about the potential for easing in March. The euro initially tumbled but it recovered...
View ArticleEscalators and Elevators
A trending market is like an escalator – slow and steady – but when a correction comes it comes fast and in a straight line, like an elevator. That was true in all markets last week, especially oil as...
View ArticleThe Downgrade Headwinds Are Blowing
A crisis usually starts in a pocket of the economy and then moves to the financial sector. The commodity bust was back in focus after a fresh fall in oil Monday. The euro was the top performer while...
View ArticleAhead of the FOMC
Markets are sending negative signals about the global economy but economic data isn't, at least not yet. The Fed is inclined to focus on data confirming its bias toward higher growth and inflation in...
View ArticleWhat Markets Say is more Important than what Fed Says
The Fed offered several dovish hints in the FOMC statement revealed Wednesday but it wasn't enough to satisfy markets. The Australian dollar was the top performer while the kiwi lagged. The NZD...
View ArticleEnduring Disappointment, BoJ Next
A wild day in oil overshadowed a terrible durable goods orders report Thursday, but it shouldn't have. Volatility was high as the pound led the way while the yen lagged. The Bank of Japan decision is...
View ArticleImplicit BoJ Depreciation Means more Explicit PBOC Devaluation
The BoJ's decision to cut the interest rate on current account balances to -0.10% highlights the beginning of the end of Japan's asset purchase program due to insufficient bonds held by banks, pension...
View ArticleYen Extends Slump, China PMI Next
Risk trades roared right into the finish on Friday. The upbeat mood continued early in the week with dollar leading and yen lower. Chinese purchasing manager's indexes are due later. Back in early...
View ArticleCable Jumps, Fischer Backtracks, RBA Next
The Fed has suddenly rediscovered its data dependency as part of a slow walk-down from a March hike. The pound leaped higher on Monday while the US dollar lagged. The Australian dollar now moves into...
View ArticleDéjà Vu All Over Again
It was Groundhog Day on Tuesday and the Bill Murray movie of the same name was a perfect description because it was a replay of theme and market moves we saw over and over again in January. The yen led...
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