Is this Gold Bounce for Real?
Has the time come to buy gold, or is it another false bounce? Ever since its intermediate high of October 2012, gold descended in a long forming downtrend, interrupted by a series of five upward...
View ArticleDollar Dumped, Oil Jumps
Dovish Fed comments and a soft ISM non-manufacturing index contributed to a massive run on the US dollar Wednesday. The dollar suffered 200 pip losses on multiple fronts as commodity currencies surged....
View ArticleDollar Finds a Footing Ahead of NFP
Middling economic data persisted in the US but markets showed some signs of stabilization ahead of non-farm payrolls. The Swiss franc was the top performer while the pound lagged after the BOE....
View ArticleChina's FX Dilemma
January forex reserve data revealed on the weekend that China is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace in order to strengthen the yuan. Yet the common theme remains that China wants to...
View ArticleUSDJPY Cracks on Fresh Energy Questions
Rumours of a major US energy company preparing for bankruptcy are a telling insight into the current market psychology. USD/JPY and the Nasdaq hit their lowest since late 2014 as risk aversion took...
View ArticleDo You Believe in Yellen?
Market reactions depend less on the hawkish/dovish inclinations of central bankers and more on whether officials are in tune with signals from markets. The yen was the top performer as USD/JPY fell to...
View ArticleThe Central Bank Playbook From Here
Two central banks may have intervened on Thursday as market continue to cast a vote of no confidence in economic leaders. The yen led the way while the pound lagged. Japan returns from holiday in an...
View ArticleChina Returns, Euro Shorts Cut Again
Chinese markets reopen after a week of holidays and that will set the tone for the week. The euro is slightly lower in early trading. Weekly CFTC data showed a second consecutive drop in euro shorts....
View ArticleEuro Bull-Bear Division
Mario Draghi had no choice but to signal the willingness for the ECB “ready to do its part” in furthering policy stimulus at today's testimony to the EU Parliament. Draghi's dovish spin was inevitable...
View ArticleRefocusing on the Data
Markets go through periods of confusion and comfort but ultimately, the data is what tells the story and that's what will answer all the questions that have been plaguing markets. The yen was the top...
View ArticleThe Fed Still Has Some Fight
The FOMC Minutes showed that policymakers are tentative but also that they remain biased towards a hike. That will come into play in the medium term but on the day oil and risk sentiment were much...
View ArticleYen Rebounds, Kuroda Awaited
The euro fell for the fifth consecutive day as the market begins to focus on potential ECB easing but theyen was the top performer on the day with AUD lagging as a touch of risk aversion returned...
View ArticleUSDX Diamonds Ahead of GDP & G20
Now things become more interesting. Stocks are no longer in a free fall, yields stabilize, gold holds up and oil is back down after traders take a language lesson in the difference between “freezing”,...
View ArticleBritain's Brexillent Adventure Begins
The pound fell sharply in early trading after London's mayor announced he's in favour of leaving the EU, following Friday's late session rally in reaction to PM Cameron's reaching a deal with the EU....
View ArticleMissed our GBP Trades?
As GBP takes center stage, I am receiving several tweets and emails of charts showing the technical ugliness of the currency. So I take this chance to highlight to those (who are not subscribers) that...
View ArticleWill Oil Shorts Think Twice?
Crude prices gained more than 6% on Monday after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to freeze prices at current levels. The pound finally found buyers in US trading but it was still easily the laggard on...
View ArticleUS Consumer Stalls, Naimi Freezes
Stocks fell alongside oil after Saudi's oil minister Al Naimi asserted that a freeze in oil production did not mean a cut and that no reduction in output would be happening any time soon. The yen and...
View ArticleWhy the Market Turned
The intraday reversal in many markets on Wednesday highlighted two dominant undercurrents. On the day, CAD finished as the top performer while GBP lagged to another long-term low. Data on Australian...
View ArticleA Leap to Month End
Watch out for choppy trading in month-end flows as the yen wraps up its biggest monthly gain since October 2008. The yen is showing some early strength while the New Zealand dollar is the laggard after...
View ArticleMarch Opens with a Sprint
Markets race into March with a series of major economic releases in the hours ahead along with the reaction to the Chinese RRR cut. The yen was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar lagged in...
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